The EURUSD is positive on the day after reaching a new low earlier in the day
The EURUSD is trading higher after the retail sales failed to impress. The current price is extending to new session highs as I type at 1.0854. In the Asian session, the price did move to a low price of 1.08265. That was the lowest level since May 12. There is also a gap on the weekly chart in the euro between 1.0820 and 1.0776. The low price today stalled just above the upper end of that gap.
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the EURUSD for the 2nd week in a row (see red boxes) has had the high on Monday and low on Friday. Last week, the range was 154 pips. This week’s trading range was 130 pips. The price did move marginally higher on Tuesday snapping a string of 6 consecutive down days, but resume the trend lower on Wednesday and Thursday. Today, the price is trading higher on the day. The price close yesterday at 1.0835. Watch that level for intraday support (trading at 1.0854 currently).
On the topside, the next closest target comes in at 1.08642. Looking at the hourly chart the low on Wednesday was near that level and there was an intraday low on Thursday also at that level. The 38.2% retracement of the move down over the last 3 trading days (from the ceiling on Wednesday) comes in at that level as well.
A move above will target a topside trend line at 1.0872. That trend line connects highs from February 5 and February 12.
Ultimately, if the price is to show more signs of the buyers taking more control, a move above the falling 100 hour moving average will need to be broken (blue line in the chart below). That moving average currently comes in at 1.0888 (and moving lower). The last time the price traded above the 100 hour moving average was back on February 4.
The EURUSD has been stepping/trending lower over the last two weeks. However, traders are trying to build a bottom foundation against an old gap area on the weekly chart.
If the price can stay positive today (above the close from yesterday at 1.0835), more probing to the upside can be tried. However, there are a lot of technical roadblocks that may get in the way.